Another factor that needs to be borne in mind vis-a-vis the ability
of Daesh to retake Palmyra, is that in the course of the ongoing US-led
operation to retake Mosul in western Iraq, the progress of which has
faltered in the past couple of weeks, thousands of Daesh fighters have
been able to escape across the border into Syria, making them available
to be redeployed elsewhere. Here again we discern the grievous
consequences of the refusal of the Americans to countenance the repeated
invitation by Russia and the Syrians to unite in what should be a
common struggle to defeat terrorism.
Ultimately, the success enjoyed by Daesh in retaking Palmyra will be
short-lived. Though this fact may come as little comfort to the families
of the soldiers killed as a result of this setback, it is a point worth
emphasizing if only to illustrate that Daesh is an organization whose
military defeat is now certain — a matter of when not if. In this
regard, using the Second World War as an historical parallel, the Daesh
military operation against Palmyra is one we could equate to the German
Ardennes offensive of late 1944, which came as the last gasp of a Nazi
war machine approaching its inevitable demise.
What this brief military reverse does also is shine an even harsher
light on President Obama's decision to lift the legal prohibition put
in place, under the terms of the US Arms Export Control Act, when it
comes to supplying weapons to various groups involved in the conflict in
Syria.
Though widely believed to be a decision designed to enable the US to arm
the Kurds they have been supporting, perhaps with a view to a push on
Raqqa early next year, there is justifiable reason to be concerned that
advanced weaponry could fall into the hands of ISIS or other
anti-government groups as a consequence. Even worse is the prospect of
the US arming so-called moderate anti-government groups with MANPADS,
shoulder held missiles capable of bringing down helicopters, given that
the Obama administration has yet to retreat from the position of regime
change in Damascus.
We are also entitled to speculate if at least part of the
motivation behind this inexplicable demarche by Obama is to saddle
president-elect Donald Trump with a fait accompli. The president-elect
has made no secret of his intention to embark on a step-change in US
foreign policy with regard to Syria and the wider region. His priority,
one he has stated repeatedly, will be combatting terrorism rather than
those who already are combating terrorism — i.e. Russia and Syria.
In reaching the point at which Syria's survival as a pluralist, secular,
and non-sectarian state is assured, there can be no negotiation over
the right of the Syrian people and Syrian people alone to determine the
future of the country going forward. Given what they have suffered over
the past five years, this is surely one right they have earned.
For those in any doubt, there are no Sunnis, Shiites, Druze,
Alawites, Turkmen, Kurds, or Assyrians in Syria. There are only Syrians.
The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and
do not necessarily reflect the official position of Sputnik.