TEHRAN (Basirat)- The outgoing year saw no full-scale escalation of the territorial dispute over the South China Sea, but the tense situation remains unresolved, Russian expert Anton Tsvetov told Sputnik China.
The outgoing year saw no full-scale escalation of the territorial dispute over the South China Sea, but the tense situation remains unresolved, Russian expert Anton Tsvetov told Sputnik China.sputniknews.com reports:
In an interview with Sputnik China, expert Anton Tsvetov of the
Center for Strategic Research, a Moscow-based think-tank, said that
although there was no full-blown escalation of the territorial spat over
the South China Sea throughout 2016, it can't be said that the
situation has changed for the better.
Tsvetov recalled that the main negative expectations regarding the
situation in the South China Sea in 2016 were related to the decision of
the Permanent Court of Arbitration at The Hague on Manila's claim
against China.
Beijing, for its part, also added fuel to the fire by lashing out
at The Hague's arbitration and its legitimacy, according to Tsvetov,
leading to a low-key reaction after The Hague Court announced its
decision on the matter.
"One month before The Hague Court's move, the Philippines elected
its new President Rodrigo Duterte, who decided not to capitalize on a
legal and diplomatic victory in The Hague and actually put the court's
decision on the back burner in exchange for the normalization of
relations with China," Tsvetov said.
He added that right now, Manila "continues its drift toward China," with
Duterte knowing full well in the run-up to the inauguration of the new
US President, "the Philippines can flirt with Beijing without fearing
possible sanctions from Washington."
Against this background, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations
(ASEAN) [position on] the South China Sea issue was considerably
weakened, especially given that many ASEAN countries were focused on
resolving internal problems," Tsvetov said referring, for example, to
Vietnam which "turned to the traditional combination of its cooperation
with China and the development of its own capabilities to contain
Beijing."
However, the absence of open confrontation in the South China Sea in
2016 does not mean the situation is improving, Tsvetov said, citing
Beijing's efforts to continue boosting its clout on the islands which it
considers part of its territory.
He recalled that among other things, Beijing launched direct
flights to one of the airfields on the islands and made global headlines
with the news that Chinese sailors had intercepted an underwater US
drone in international waters in the South China Sea region.
"Even though the drone was finally returned to the US after brief talks,
the interception clearly indicated China's drive to clarify who is 'the
master' of the South China Sea," Tsvetov said.On the whole, China's activity in the South China Sea in 2016 can
be described as "rather intense," he said, referring to Beijing's naval
drills with Russia, the deployment of China's only aircraft carrier to
the region and the installation of anti-aircraft and anti-missile
systems on all seven artificial islands created by Beijing in the South
China Sea.
Tsvetov did not rule out that US President-elect Donald Trump may take a
hard line against Beijing on the South China Sea issue, trying to
compensate for the US's "retreat" from Asia which has repeatedly been
mentioned by Obama's critics.
"Given the positions China won in 2016, Trump's fresh assertiveness
could mean a qualitatively new escalation in the South China Sea," in
2017, Tsvetov concluded.