Speculations about new Parliament Speaker

The 10th parliament election summed up and the fate of most parliamentary seats has become settled; however, run-off parliamentary elections will be held for some cities and towns where candidates could not get the required minimum 25 percent of the votes cast in Friday's twin elections.
Selection of the parliament speaker and board of directors is, most probably, the chief issue of the next parliament. A common fallacy about the selection is that the parliament speaker will be the person who wins the majority votes in Tehran. However, historical accounts and legal frameworks say something different.
A review of the selection of members of the board of director and speaker of the parliament in the recent decades shows there are many instances that easily rule out this idea.



Although having won a majority of votes can, in fact, be a crucial factor in selection of a candidate as a member of the board of directors or the speaker of the parliament, there are certain other factors that influence selection processes; such factors include the candidates' personal legitimacy and public acceptance, knowledge and skillfulness, management records and capability, political and revolutionary backgrounds, political inclinations, affiliations to groups or factions, composition of MPs and weight of political factions in the parliament.
It is still too soon to speak about the 10th parliamentary board of directors, but the future parliament's structure which is in favor of principalist MPs, the following points can be mentioned:

1.    Mohammad Reza Aref's selection as winner of Tehran constituency for winning the highest number of votes would make him a serious contender for becoming the next parliament speaker. Dr. Afer has, for years, served as a senior executive and has been the first-vice president during the Khatami administration. He has also served as the minister of science and technology in Iran. Membership in the Expediency Council and the Supreme Council of the Culture Revolution are other posts he has held over the years.
 
  2.    Another candidate for the next parliament speaker is Ali Larijani, the current speaker who represents the people of Qom. He has held the post for the past 8 years in the 8th and 9th parliaments. His political tendency is principalist, however, his friction with certain principalist currents deprived him of their support in the February 26 election. The frictions did dent his votes but were not enough to prevent him from entering the next parliament. These days, Larijani appears to be more inclined towards the moderation camp and seems to enjoy more support from moderates.
 
3.    Even though principalists still enjoy a majority of parliament seats, most of their leading figures, including Gholamali Haddad Adel who served the speaker of the 7th parliaments, failed to win enough votes to secure their membership in the next parliament.  The election outcome puts principalists in a fresh state in the parliament. Certainly, they will seek to establish a new figure from among themselves but if they fail to do so, they will have to support Mr. Larijani as the next parliament speaker.