Why are the US election polls so close?
Both candidates suffer from unpopularity both within their own parties and among the public at large.
Some big Republicans figures have refused to endorse Trump, while YouGov polling has shown that just over half of Bernie Sanders' supporters would back Clinton.
Recent New York Times and CBS News polling has shown that both candidates' popularity is limited by the public's lack of trust with both candidates.
Just 33 per cent of Americas think Clinton is honest and trustworthy,
compared to 35 per cent thinking the same of Trump. 57 per cent of
people say they don't share Clinton's values, while the number is
similarly high for Trump, at 62 per cent.
More people think Clinton has the right kind of temperament and
personality to be a good president, while Trump has the advantage when
people pick the candidate who they think could bring about "real change"
in Washington.
Still, Clinton holds a big demographic advantage over Trump. A Washington Post poll indicated
that 69 per cent of non-whites and 52 per cent women favour Clinton,
while 57 per cent of whites and men support the Republican.
What are the odds on the American presidential election?
It has long been said of
predicting sporting outcomes that the bookies don’t get it far wrong,
working out probabilities with complicated mathematics based on the
choices of their thousands of paying punters.
After last year’s surprise General Election result, many political followers have lost faith in pollsters and prefer to look at the odds to predict the future.
Hillary Clinton has been odds-on favourite since the end of February,
but Trump has steadily caught her up as his Republican rivals dropped
out. Last July he was a 25/1 shot while Hillary was already at evens.
Coral's latest odds latest odds for the next US president are:
- Hillary Clinton 4/7
- Donald Trump 6/4
