Scotland Prepares to Escape 'Hard Brexit' With Second Independence Referendum
TEHRAN (Basirat)- hould the Scottish National Party (SNP) dislike the conditions of the UK-EU negotiated Brexit deal, Scotland will call for a second referendum of its independence, aimed at remaining a member of the EU, Scottish officials said.
hould the Scottish National Party (SNP) dislike the conditions of the UK-EU negotiated Brexit deal, Scotland will call for a second referendum of its independence, aimed at remaining a member of the EU, Scottish officials said.
Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon warned that a ‘hard Brexit’ scenario with the UK losing access to the single European market could result in a second Scottish independence referendum. Should Westminster fail to negotiate a Brexit solution allowing Britain to retain its trade ties with the continent, including remaining part of the customs union, the Scottish government expressed confidence the people of Scotland would opt to separate from the UK, seeking ways to remain in the EU.
In the June 23 Brexit referendum, Scotland and Northern Ireland voted in favour of remaining in the common market, whilst Wales and England supported separation from the EU.
Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon warned that a ‘hard Brexit’ scenario with the UK losing access to the single European market could result in a second Scottish independence referendum. Should Westminster fail to negotiate a Brexit solution allowing Britain to retain its trade ties with the continent, including remaining part of the customs union, the Scottish government expressed confidence the people of Scotland would opt to separate from the UK, seeking ways to remain in the EU.
In the June 23 Brexit referendum, Scotland and Northern Ireland voted in favour of remaining in the common market, whilst Wales and England supported separation from the EU.
Meanwhile, Scotland, significantly dissatisfied with its position
within the UK, had unsuccessfully attempted a separation from Britain in
autumn 2014. Given the newly-emerged trends, including higher oil
prices after a two-year energy depression, and Scotland’s heavy ties
with the continent in terms of trade in goods and services and labour
mobility, another attempt at Scottish independence might be successful,
the Scottish National Party (SNP) assume.
"It remains my view, and that of the government I lead, that the best option for Scotland remains full membership of the EU as an independent member state," Sturgeon claims. "Independence must remain an option for safeguarding our European status, if it becomes clear that our interests cannot be protected in any other way."
"It remains my view, and that of the government I lead, that the best option for Scotland remains full membership of the EU as an independent member state," Sturgeon claims. "Independence must remain an option for safeguarding our European status, if it becomes clear that our interests cannot be protected in any other way."
The ‘Scottish factor’ adds to the pressure the UK’s Prime Minister
Theresa May and Foreign Minister Boris Johnson find themselves under,
while drafting proposals for Brexit. Energy and finance have been the
two major staples of the UK’s economy in the past two decades.
With Canary Wharf’s wariness towards Brexit expressed in the recent statements from the House of Lords, a threat of a second Scottish referendum might be a trouble for Westminster. Most of the UK’s North Sea oil production would go to the independent Scotland should the ‘indyref2’ succeed and whilst the UK’s manufacturing is in a weakened state through the challenges of the re-emerged isolationism, Scottish independence would be a hit to the UK’s economy.
With Canary Wharf’s wariness towards Brexit expressed in the recent statements from the House of Lords, a threat of a second Scottish referendum might be a trouble for Westminster. Most of the UK’s North Sea oil production would go to the independent Scotland should the ‘indyref2’ succeed and whilst the UK’s manufacturing is in a weakened state through the challenges of the re-emerged isolationism, Scottish independence would be a hit to the UK’s economy.
Meanwhile, on Sunday, Trade Secretary Liam Fox said the UK could
remain part of the single market after having severed the political ties
with the EU. Ex-Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne, however,
stated that it is in Britain’s best interest to maintain the closest
possible ties with the EU.
Alex Salmond, the SNP foreign affairs spokesman, expressed confidence his party could win the second referendum as many Scots would prefer maintaining their European status to the social guarantees provided by the Westminster.
Alex Salmond, the SNP foreign affairs spokesman, expressed confidence his party could win the second referendum as many Scots would prefer maintaining their European status to the social guarantees provided by the Westminster.
"The last time, when I was First Minister and embarked on this
process, support for independence was 28 per cent." Salmond said. "After
two years we ended up at 45 per cent … In a situation where the UK
Government was determined… to sever our ties as a thousand-year-old
European nation, then I think that would bring many people who were
previously sceptical about independence to the Yes side."
PM May has reiterated she would consider the Scottish aspirations to maintain ties with the EU during the Brexit negotiations with Brussels, which are set to commence in March. However, should the Tories opt to initiate the Article 50 in spring 2017, thus triggering an obvious ‘hard Brexit’, more political turmoil could emerge on the SNP's part.
PM May has reiterated she would consider the Scottish aspirations to maintain ties with the EU during the Brexit negotiations with Brussels, which are set to commence in March. However, should the Tories opt to initiate the Article 50 in spring 2017, thus triggering an obvious ‘hard Brexit’, more political turmoil could emerge on the SNP's part.
Sturgeon said her view of the situation is that the UK should
remain in the common market, even though the all-British referendum
decided ‘Leave’. She advocates Scotland’s tariff-free trade in goods and
services with both the rest of the UK and the EU, meaning Scotland
could become a trade mediator between London and Brussels.
However, even if the May cabinet opts for ‘hard Brexit’, and Scotland votes to secede from the UK, it is unlikely that Westminster would be keen to maintain free trade with the newly-independent Scotland.
However, even if the May cabinet opts for ‘hard Brexit’, and Scotland votes to secede from the UK, it is unlikely that Westminster would be keen to maintain free trade with the newly-independent Scotland.
For now, Westminster is pursuing the most beneficial Brexit deal
for the UK as a whole, which, however, gives the SNP more bargaining
power as Edinburgh could claim the deal is still not good enough for
Scotland regardless of its broader perception in the UK.
"We are committed as we leave the EU to getting a deal that works for the UK as a whole and that means a deal that works for Scotland as well, a deal that allows British firms maximum access to operate with the single market," Greg Swift, Pm May’s representative, said. "The UK as a whole will leave the EU."
"We are committed as we leave the EU to getting a deal that works for the UK as a whole and that means a deal that works for Scotland as well, a deal that allows British firms maximum access to operate with the single market," Greg Swift, Pm May’s representative, said. "The UK as a whole will leave the EU."
In June 2016, Scotland voted 62pc to 38pc to ‘Remain’ in the EU,
whilst in September 2014, it voted 55pc to 45pc to ‘Remain’ in the UK.
