TEHRAN (Basirat)- Riyadh’s decision to decrease oil production may alienate Saudi Arabia from its traditional Western allies and pose a serious threat to the House of Saud.
Riyadh’s decision to decrease oil production may alienate Saudi Arabia from its traditional Western allies and pose a serious threat to the House of Saud.
Mainstream media outlets in the US and UK unleashed a barrage of
criticism upon Saudi Arabia, blasting the country for signing an oil
deal with Russia. The Guardian even predicted that the falling oil
prices and a sharp drop in demand for oil from that region will spell
doom for the Saudi government.
The newspaper likened the possibility of the Saudi ruling dynasty’s
demise to the fall of the pro-American Shah government in Iran which
caught Western intelligence agencies by surprise.
However, Hassan Hanizadeh, former chief editor of the Mehr News
Agency, told Sputnik Persian that the fate of Saudi Arabia could be much
worse due to a number of factors.
"It’s no secret that the US and the West consider the Kingdom of Saudi
Arabia their ally and chief treasurer for various goals. Up until today
the Saudi money helped only the US and its allies to advance their
interests. However, now that the oil prices have dropped and the
kingdom’s annual budget has decreased by $100 billion, their Arabian
treasurer has become worthless to them. Everyone knows that the US does
not have any constant allies in its foreign policy; that is, when the US
realizes that a country becomes too weak to bankroll American projects,
it simply drops them," he explained.
Hanizadeh also remarked that the lack of democratic processes
within the country also poses a significant threat to the Saudi
"Saudi government structure is based on the clan society principles. The
power belongs to the most influential members of several clans; this
system is completely devoid of even a concept of constitution. The
despotism that the ruling Saudi clan practices towards other citizens of
the kingdom – for example, the five-million Shiite population – is also
an important factor. Shiites live in the eastern regions of Saudi
Arabia, the biggest oil cluster of the kingdom. And yet their rights
have been being violated since the very founding of the kingdom. The so
called successors – 6000 Saudi princes – simply pocket about 60 percent
of all oil revenues," he said.
All in all, Hanizadeh concluded, the lack of any forms of democracy
makes the Saudi government extremely frail, and any economic or
political defeats, along with spending billions of dollars on launching
airstrikes against civilians in Yemen, may cause the government to
collapse at any moment.
"Many analysts believe that 2017 will mark the fall of Saudi Arabia’s
ruling clan. And the fall of the al-Saud dynasty will be much worse than
the end of the Shah government in Iran in 1979, as it is likely that it
will be accompanied by a bloody civil war across the kingdom. One
should not discount the probability of feuds and discord between
numerous power-hungry would-be successors, each of whom is backed by his
whole tribe. In this scenario, the enmity between tribes will
inevitably lead to a civil war," Hanizadeh said.