TEHRAN (Basirat)- The world is witnessing the post-Cold-War re-emergence of regional great powers and the Trump administration needs to seek ways to advance its interests under these new circumstances. Vietnam's foreign policy reflects changes in the Asia Pacific geopolitical landscape.
The world is witnessing the post-Cold-War re-emergence of regional great powers and the Trump administration needs to seek ways to advance its interests under these new circumstances. Vietnam's foreign policy reflects changes in the Asia Pacific geopolitical landscape.While the new balance of power is taking shape in the Southeast Asian region, Hanoi is trying to reconcile itself to reality.
"More so than most of its neighbors, Vietnam can neither fully reject
nor embrace the growing power on its northern border," Strategic
Forecasting, Inc. (Stratfor) pointed out in its latest analytical report
of the Asia Pacific region, in a reference to China.
"Some, such as the Philippines and Malaysia, have eagerly joined
Chinese-led trade blocs and dispute-settling mechanisms. Others, like
Japan and Singapore, have firmly backed Washington's regional agenda.
Vietnam has historically opted to strike a delicate balance between the
two, but as the region adjusts to a new political reality, Hanoi's
strategy is becoming increasingly difficult to pull off," the report
stated.
Stratfor's analysts emphasized that since the end of the Cold War
Vietnam has been seeking independence from both Beijing and Washington.
"Choosing between US- and Chinese-led initiatives in trade and security
has not been an option for Vietnam since the Cold War ended," the report
noted, adding that Hanoi has taken full advantage of its location by
maintaining relations with the US, China and ASEAN nations.
The analysts pointed out that Hanoi has long been one of the
"staunchest advocates" for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). However,
it has recently backed off from the deal.
Shortly after Donald Trump's win in the US presidential election
Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc announced that although the
country's legislature was almost certain to ratify the TPP agreement,
Hanoi would shelve the US-led trade accord.
"The United States has announced it suspends the submission of TPP
to the parliament so there are not sufficient conditions for Vietnam to
submit its proposal for ratification," the Prime Minister told the
National Assembly on November 17, as cited by Reuters.
Meanwhile, Vietnam has jumped at the opportunity to join the
China-led Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership initiative and
strike the free trade agreement with the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU).
Hanoi "doesn't put all its eggs in one basket," Pham Quang Minh, rector
of Hanoi National University's University of Social Sciences and
Humanities, highlighted in his November interview with Sputnik
Vietnamese.
He admitted, however, that "the TPP was a hope for Vietnam for some time."
"Vietnam has always worked from the principle 'don't put all your eggs
in one basket,' and wasn't completely relying on TPP. But now it is
necessary to activate economic reforms. Vietnam has to wake up and
quickly adapt to the new economic situation," Pham told Sputnik.
Stratfor's analysts called attention to the fact that Vietnam's
motives for striking these trade and investment agreements with China
and the EEU "are not solely economic."
"Hanoi's deal with the Eurasian Economic Union, for instance, offers
only limited access to the bloc's market but lays the groundwork for a
stronger military and energy partnership with Russia, its former ally,"
the report highlighted.
While insisting that Vietnam's "resistance" to China's influence
has deep historic roots, Stratfor can't overlook the fact that Hanoi is
drifting away from Washington and softening its criticism of Beijing.
And so are other Washington's longstanding allies in Southeast Asia,
according to Douglas H. Paal, director of the Asia Program at the
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
"Traditional American allies Thailand and the Philippines are
increasingly estranged from Washington, leaving greater scope for
Beijing to cultivate influence," Paal noted in his op-ed for South China
Morning Post.
"As the Trump administration gathers itself, it should take stock of the
post-cold-war re-emergence of regional great powers… Moscow, Beijing
and Delhi will join the US in defining the future of Asia, and
Washington should figure out how best to advance its interests in this
new era," the American academic stressed.