Trump’s Confusion over Iran Nuclear Deal: Compliance or Non-Compliance

Fakhreddin Asadi 

Trump was sworn in as the 45th president of the United States on Friday, and finally went to the White House. In their last days in the White House, the officials of the Obama administration stressed the need for preserving the JCPOA as a great achievement. US Secretary of State John Kerry, who had a key role in the nuclear talks, warned Trump about irreversible consequences of withdrawing from the deal. 

"I’ll bet you — I haven’t talked to all of them, but I bet you that our friends and allies who negotiated this with us will get together and that Russia, China, Germany, France and Britain will say, ‘You know what? This is a good deal. We’re going to keep it,’” Kerry said.

He further noted that US’s withdrawal from the multilateral deal will damage its credibility in the world. 

"We’ll have made ourselves the odd person out," Kerry said. "[And] we will have done great injury to ourselves, and it will hurt for the endurance of one year, two years, whatever, while the administration is that.” 

In the meantime, while Trump was not mentioned by name, European officials recently in a message aimed the US president emphasized that all parties to the agreement should abide by it. Also, western media reports suggest that some European officials have recently held talks with members of the Trump administration over the JCPOA and its importance to be maintained. Trump and its administration have made contradictory statements about the JCPOA and the US compliance with the deal. 

While Trump’s designated secretary of state Rex Tillerson has recommended a "full review" of the nuclear deal, Defense Secretary James Mattis says US must stick with accord. Furthermore, Trump’s recent remarks about the JCPOA show the optimistic outlook that the new US government will implement the deal no longer exists. 

In an interview to the Times, Trump once said, "I’m not happy with the Iran deal, I think it’s one of the worst deals ever made.” "Well I don’t want to say what I’m gonna do with the Iran deal.”

It seems that European officials are worried about Trump’s unpredictable approach toward the nuclear agreement. However, in the latest session of the JCPOA joint commission in Vienna, representatives from Iran, the Group 5+1 (Russia, China, the US, Britain, France and Germany) and the European Union adopted a tough approach to any potential violation of the JCPOA by the US. They also expressed their concern over this issue and stressed the importance of compliance with the accord by all parties. 

US President Donlad Trump still appears indecisive about how he will treat the 2015 nuclear deal, also known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), between Tehran and world powers. This behavior certainly stems from his confusion over the deal and also shows Trump’s reluctance to comply with the international accord endorsed by the UN security council. Consequently, it is naïve to think that Washington could remain committed to the deal taking into account what Tillerson and Mattis say about the JCPOA. 

It should be noted here that Iran’s foreign policy and diplomacy system must keep a wary eye on Trump administration’s multi-layered game on the JCPOA. 

Recently, Donald Trump's Middle East adviser, Walid Phares, said, "…he [Trump] is not going to implement it as is; he is going to revise it after negotiating one on one with Iran or with a series of allies.”

New reports also suggest that the Trump administration is trying to impose new sanctions on Iran over issues like its missile program and human rights situation. Trump is seeking not to be the first one to violate the deal and also impose new sanctions on the Islamic Republic and keep the previous one in their place. 

It is obvious that US lack of commitments to previous issues, including Iran’s banking ties with other countries will continue and will be expedited when the White House, the House of Representatives and the Senate are all the same front. Therefore, new anti-Tehran sanctions are on the way. 

The remarks by Mattis and Tillerson should not make Iran’s diplomacy system hopeful and optimistic about the US, but such statements should consolidate Tehran’s resistance against Washington’s lack of commitments. 

The contradictory statements made by the two senior US officials reveal a new duality in Trump's zigzagging ways on the JCPOA. In addition, imposing new non-nuclear sanctions against Iran should not be overlooked, an issue which will materialize not in the too distant future with the cooperation of the new government and the Congress. 

Anyway, a new principled measure should be adopted by the Islamic Republic whereby it can announce the JCPOA null and void. In better words, Iran’s system of diplomacy should be fully prepared to respond proportionately to any breach of the JCPOA by the US. Iran’s Foreign Ministry ought to reiterate Iran’s ability to fully restore its peaceful nuclear program.