Scotland’s Fate Tied to Brexit Talks

Hanif Ghafari

BASIRAT POLITICAL CENTER
 
There are some main concerns which need to come under their careful scrutiny:
First, the Tories’ defeat in the British general election has left Theresa May with a lower leeway, limiting the room for her manoeuvre during the Brexit talks. In her latest statements on Brexit, Germany’s Chancellor, Angela Merkel said the European Union’s leaders are most concerned with the future of the bloc. To put it differently, by these remarks, Merkel has sent a strong message to the British government: The EU would not offer concessions easily during Brexit talks. On the other hand, there have been low whispers recently about the re-joining of the UK to the EU. The whispers are getting louder today. Despite this, the British officials have announced that they remain committed to the results of last year’s independence referendum and would not change their decision to leave the EU.
The second concern is that the Scottish fate has been tied to the future of Brexit talks. Earlier, Scotland was expected to hold its second independence referendum in late 2018 or early 2019. Now the Scottish officials say the referendum will not be held before Brexit talks. The decision does not seem good for British prime minister because she is well aware that tying Scottish fate to the Brexit talks can turn into the Achilles heel for her government. Back in 2014, with just a 10 percent vote margin, the Scottish decided to remain part of the UK. They also called on the country not to leave the EU. But, today the conditions have changed significantly. The growing power of the Scottish National Party (SNP) on the one hand and the dissatisfactions of the Scottish created after 2014 independence vote, have changed the condition, putting the British officials in a serious trouble.
It’s noteworthy that during the referendum on the UK’s EU membership last year, the Scottish voted to remain. But people from other parts of the UK voted to leave. At the end of the day, 52 percent of the British residents voted to leave the EU. So, the Scottish had no other choice but to accept the result. Despite this, the Scottish are still against Brexit and will not lose any chance (like the second independence vote) to leave the UK. So, Theresa May has only one choice: Winning more concessions during Brexit talks. Now, most experts on the European affairs reflect consensus on this point that Theresa May does not have the upper hand in the upcoming Brexit talks particularly after her party’s defeat in the general election.
And the third concern is that the balance of power has changed inside the UK after the Tories’ defeat in the election. The rise of Labour Party under Jeremy Corbyn on the one hand and the tough negotiation underway between the Conservatives and the Democratic Unionist Party to make a coalition, on the other hand has put May in a bad condition. Today, some of the main figures in the Conservative Party have called for Theresa May’s resignation. Meanwhile, some reports say politicians like Foreign Secretary, Boris Johnson and Chancellor of the Exchequer, Phillip Hammond as May’s successors. It goes without saying that, the continuation of the current situation inside the Conservative Party would sound the alarm for Theresa May. The overall condition has left Theresa May with a limited leeway compared with the past. Can the British Prime Minister keep going on with the above mentioned concerns or not, remains to be seen?