As president, Trump does have the authority to end American participation in JCPOA

"The IRGC is already subject to sanctions and has been designated under at least five separate U.S. sanctions programs. These current U.S. sanctions impose restrictions on foreign parties, including foreign financial institutions, transacting or otherwise dealing with the IRGC and its designated agents, affiliates, and officials. This means that the practical consequences for the IRGC of new sanctions would be negligible, duplicating existing U.S. sanctions,” Professor James D. Savage told to the Basirat.

Savage is a political science professor at the University of Virginia and teaches public policy in the Department of Politics and at the Frank Batten School of Leadership and Public Policy. He is an expert in government budget and fiscal policies and budget theory. He completed his undergraduate degrees in political science and psychology at the University of California, Riverside, and his graduate degrees in political science, public policy, and economics at the University of California, Berkeley, and his post-doctoral fellowship at Harvard University.

Following is the full text of the interview.

Basirat: Has Donald Trump's popularity increased among Americans? Why?

Savage: President Trump’s popularity rating has fallen since he became president. His approval rating in January was 45 percent, and it is now (September) 37 percent. This figure is deceiving, because it measures his approval rating among all respondents. Among Republicans, Trump’s approval rating is 80 percent, but only 9 percent among Democrats. This means that Trump’s Republican base still strongly supports him and his actions.

Basirat: There is some news about the possibility of censure of Donald Trump. In your opinion, to what extent is it possible that Trump be censured?

Savage: No possibility. The Congress is controlled by Trump’s Republican Party, and the Republicans would never approve a censure vote.

Basirat: Please let me to turn into the JCPOA. In your view, what will be Trump's policy toward it?

Savage: In April and July, 2017, the Trump administration agreed that Iran was complying with JCPOA. Nevertheless, President Trump stated that he expects to declare Iran non-compliant by mid-October, the next time he is required by to sign a three-monthly certification of the agreement. There are reports that U.S. intelligence officials are under pressure to support a declaration of non-compliance. So, October will be a big test of Trump’s position on the agreement.

Basirat: And what about the other world powers (the United Kingdom, Russia, France, China, Germany, and the European Union)? Will they accompany US policy?

Savage: Trump declared during the election that the JCPOA is "the worst deal ever negotiated” and a "disaster.” Trump stated he would renegotiate or "rip up the deal.” As president, Trump does have the authority to end American participation in JCPOA. However, renegotiating the agreement would be difficult. Trump would need the consent of the other world powers (the United Kingdom, Russia, France, China, Germany, and the European Union) that approved JCPOA. The diplomatic reality is that these governments are unlikely to support additional "secondary sanctions” that penalize non-U.S. companies for conducting business with Iran.

Trump himself noted during the election that, "I’ve heard a lot of people say, ‘We’re going to rip up the deal.’ It’s very tough to do when you say, ‘Rip up a deal.’” What this means is that if the Trump terminates JCPOA, the United States may have a very difficult time reestablishing the world-wide sanctions on Iran that existed before JCPOA.

Basirat: The United States plans to impose new sanctions against Iran's IRGC. In terms of international law, is there such a possibility for US?

Savage: On July 18, the U.S. State Department and Treasury announced new sanctions against the IRGC. The State Department imposed sanctions against the IRGC Aerospace Force Self Sufficiency Jihad Organization (ASF SSJO), which is involved in Iranian ballistic missile research and flight test launches. In addition, the State Department imposed sanctions against the IRGC Research and Self Sufficiency Jehad Organization (RSSJO), which is responsible for the research and development of ballistic missiles. The Treasury targeted three networks of supporting the IRGC’s military procurement, the development of unmanned aerial vehicles and military equipment for the IRGC, and the production and maintenance of fast attack boats for the IRGC-Navy. There is no international law that prevents this action by the U.S.

Basirat: If the IRGC is put in the list of terrorist groups, what will be the regional consequences for Iran? What about the US?

Savage: The IRGC is already subject to sanctions and has been designated under at least five separate U.S. sanctions programs. These current U.S. sanctions impose restrictions on foreign parties, including foreign financial institutions, transacting or otherwise dealing with the IRGC and its designated agents, affiliates, and officials. This means that the practical consequences for the IRGC of new sanctions would be negligible, duplicating existing U.S. sanctions, Even the further designation of hundreds of Iranian entities alleged to be under the ownership or control of the IRGC would likely result in new additional penalties for the IRGC.

Thank you for taking the time out of your busy schedule.

Interview by Amir Mohammad Esmaili