TEHRAN(Basirat): Trump is expected this week to refuse to recertify that Iran is complying with the 2015 nuclear deal, a milestone diplomatic agreement that prevents Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.
Trump
seems poised to take that action despite the reality that Iran is not
violating the terms of the deal. In fact, his key national security
cabinet officers have publicly said that Iran is meeting its
commitments. The International Atomic Energy Agency, which is charged
with monitoring and verifying the deal, has issued eight reports over
the past two years echoing these conclusions.
Instead,
the president seems prepared to argue that the deal is no longer in the
United States’ vital national security interest because of Iran’s other
activities in the Middle East, including its support for terrorism, its
meddling in Syria and Yemen, and its threats to Israel’s security.
The
Trump administration is right that Iranian behavior destabilizes the
region, but wrong when it says that such behavior contradicts the
"spirit” of the agreement and that he is therefore justified in refusing
to certify Iran’s compliance. In fact, Iran’s troubling foreign policy
is precisely why the deal was necessary in the first place: An Iran
armed with a nuclear weapon would be far more threatening to regional
and global security.
But
rather than take responsibility for deciding the future of the
agreement, the president wants to pass the buck. The White House has
signaled that after his certification decision, Mr. Trump will urge the
Republican-controlled Congress not to reimpose sanctions on Iran that
would scuttle the deal. Instead, he hopes Congress will pass new
legislation to address concerns that were never part of the nuclear
agreement’s original mandate. If Congress complies, such unilateral
action to change a multilateral agreement will effectively kill it.
The
president’s unwillingness to accept the truth about the Iran deal —
that it is working to keep Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon and that
it is clearly in America’s national security interest — will have
far-reaching consequences.
For
one, this decision will breach the trust of America’s partners and
isolate our country. The deal was agreed to by the five permanent
members of the United Nations Security Council — the United States,
Britain, France, Russia and China — along with Germany and the European
Union. It was then ratified unanimously by the full Security Council.
All of these parties, except the United States, want to keep the accord
in place.
If
President Trump undermines the nuclear deal, the repercussions for
American foreign policy will be disastrous: It will drive a wedge
between the United States and Europe, weakening the critical
trans-Atlantic relationship and increasing the influence of Iran, Russia
and China. And when the president travels to China next month seeking
support to deal with North Korea’s nuclear program, he will find the
Chinese less willing partners. Washington’s credibility will be damaged
for the next time we want countries to agree to something, such as
condemning Iran’s malicious behavior in the Middle East or tightening
the screws on North Korea. Indeed, we are likely to lose any possibility
of dialogue with North Korea because Pyongyang will assume the United
States will not honor its commitments, even on multilateral agreements.
Unpredictability — a favorite self-justification for the president’s
erratic actions — has its place as a negotiating tactic, but when it
comes to war and peace, reliability and credibility matter most.
Whether
the Trump administration’s decertification unravels the deal quickly or
slowly, unjustified unilateral American action will give the Iranians
the moral high ground, allowing them to rightly say that it was the
United States, not them, who killed the deal. At the same time, if Iran
stays in the agreement with the other countries who are party to it, the
United States will lose any standing to bring concerns to the Joint
Commission, the forum the agreement set up to oversee progress; any
evidence we might offer about suspect Iranian military sites will be
viewed with suspicion.
If
Congress reimposes sanctions, Iran will withdraw from the accord,
restart its nuclear program, kick out the inspectors from the I.A.E.A.
and refuse to discuss the Americans missing in Iran or held in Iranian
prisons. The United States, and the world, would lose our eyes and ears
on the ground in Iran — the inspectors. This information vacuum could,
in short order, lead us to consider military action to destroy Iranian
nuclear facilities, perhaps leading to a wider war in the Middle East.
Given the escalatory cycle we are in with North Korea, as well as
Pyongyang’s and the president’s rhetoric, America will be faced with two
countries whose nuclear ambitions threaten our security.
It
is hard to see how any of these consequences improve the United States’
national security. Although Mr. Trump ostensibly won’t ask Congress to
reimpose sanctions now, the track record for Congress doing what the
president wants is dismal. Even if Congress doesn’t move quickly to
reimpose sanctions, Iran and our allies in this agreement know that a
congressional election is looming, and a tough stance against Tehran
could make for appealing campaign ads. The president and the
Republican-controlled Congress are not only playing with fire. They are
lighting it themselves.
A
conflagration need not occur. The president and Congress can work with
partners around the world, using a wealth of tools, to thwart Iran’s
malign actions in the Middle East while keeping the nuclear deal in
place to accomplish its objective: stopping Tehran from obtaining
nuclear weapons. Given that our national security leaders all know and
speak the truth about Iran’s compliance with the deal, we can only hope
they and Congress prevent the president from abandoning it and
disastrously undermining our national security.