Trump's Nuclear Trick on European Troika

The European troika claims that the purpose of these sanctions is to "save the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)"! And to prevent the withdrawal of the United States from the nuclear deal. These countries have claimed that if such sanctions aren't applied by April 16th, Trump's government will walk out of JCPOA. Contrary to the European troika, the three countries of Italy, Spain and Austria resisted against such claims, and stated that these sanctions would not prevent US withdrawal from the nuclear deal, and would only lead to the EU's lack of credibility among the people of the world. The important point is that the EU's economic sanctions against other international players require the consensus of all members states of this union. In any case, the European Troika strives hard to impose missile and regional sanctions on our country, and intends to persuade other European countries to accept its proposed sanctions in less than two weeks. There are some points here that can't be easily overlooked:

In a recent report by "James Dobbins” and "Dalia Dassakaye”, senior analysts at the Rand Institute, has highlighted some points regarding the JCPOA. Pointing to the conflicts raised between Washington and other members of P5+1, they proposed a "change of the nuclear accord" to "restrain Trump" in this way. They have emphasized:

We (the Rand Institute) proposed a number of measures, including utilizing mechanisms within the agreement to strengthen nuclear inspections. We also suggested pursuing side agreements that would consider extensions to the agreement in the future as well as regional cooperation forums to address wider regional security issues outside the deal's scope, particularly missile development.
Our transatlantic group put forward a Plan B. If the Trump administration withdraws the United States from the agreement, Europe could work with other international powers to keep the deal alive without U.S. participation.

It looks like as if Western resources and beyond, the European troika believe that "changing the JCPOA" is the only way for "restraining the United States". They closed their eyes on the most important option for "restraining Washington", which is to stand against Trump's tricks regarding the JCPOA. In August 2017, the first crooked and dangerous steps against the nuclear deal were taken by French President "Emmanuel Macron" and British Foreign Secretary "Boris Johnson". At that time, Macron immediately entered into a deal with Trump's administration on "changing the JCPOA " in order to realize the United States' most basic desire, namely, tying up the nuclear deal with Iran's missile activities. It has reached a point that the French president claimed the west could renegotiate with Tehran over issues such as Iran's missile power and the time limitations on Iran's nuclear program.

- Now the European Troika can't see a return way! Since the beginning, officials of the three European countries, instead of carrying out their most important mission (dealing with American's lack of commitment to the nuclear deal), have contributed to Washington's violating measures against Iran. These countries are already considering options such as "imposing new sanctions on Iran to please Trump" or at most, "continuing the JCPOA without America." The result of the European troika's game in the US ground is likely to be nothing but failure and disappointment for the three countries of Germany, France and Britain. Many Western analysts believe that appointing "Mike Pompeo" and "John Bolton" at the White House, more than being a threat to the JCPOA, is kind of a political shock for the European troika.With such appointments, the President of the United States showed that he doesn't care at all for what the Europeans do to please him! Thus, the European troika and the European Union can be considered the main losers of recent changes regarding the JCPOA.

- The Guardian, quoting some European diplomats, recently wrote that the European Union was disappointed about Trump's government remaining in the nuclear deal. The newspaper, quoted a Western diplomat (who did not want to be named), and said that they are no more hopeful. The President of the US wants to withdraw from the nuclear deal as he promised in his Presidential campaigns in 2016.

In such a situation, the European troika's insistence on Iran's missile boycotts is to be considered carefully. In other words, the three countries of Germany, Britain and France, have been trying to complete their mistake over the past year with a bigger mistake. The European troika mention that putting sanctions on Iran is the last option for the survival of the JCPOA. On the contrary, some other European players believe that this move won't have any effects on the final decision of Trump's government on the nuclear deal with Iran. Meanwhile, John Bolton, the new US national security adviser, has emphasized in one of his most recent statements that he doesn't think that Europe can reform the JCPOA.However, it seems that the European troika doesn't still want to accept "Trump's tricks" regarding the JCPOA. As a result, France, Britain and Germany are still holding to their previous plans which they've started since last year. This is while Trump has long moved away from the road the European troika was and is still driving in! It seems that the lack of capability to understand the existing realities in the international system has become a constant problem that the new generation of European politicians are stuck into. What is happening today to the JCPOA, and among the European Troika, is an indication of this problem.

Hanif Ghafari