Following is the full text of the interview with Zonis on the recent
developments in the international arena and possible changes in the world order
and regimes created after World War II.
Nowadays great gaps and differences are seen among G7 member states while
the SCO member states are moving forward unitedly. Some believe that the world
order and organizations created after World War II are being undermined, and due
to this reason the US is not going to pay the cost of NATO, WTO and free trade
treaties like NAFTA. What is your analysis?
It is something of an exaggeration to say the US pays the cost of NATO or the
WTO or NAFTA, as the richest of the member states and founder of the
organizations, especially after the catastrophe of World War II, the US took the
lead role. But member states still do contribute. The US, it needs to be
mentioned, protected itself with a veto on virtually all the decisions these
organization make. But more important than any other factor is the very peculiar
views of President Donald Trump who acts as if US allies are in fact its
adversaries while its adversaries are in fact it friends. His attacks on Europe,
NATO, the G7, etc., are not widely shared in the US and, in fact, are greeted
with horror by the vast majority of the American people. His recent appalling
performance with Vladimir Putin, where Trump said he believed the Russian
President’s denial of Russian interference in the 2016 election rather than all
the US intelligence agencies is just but one very important indication of this.
While Donald Trump attended the NATO and G7 summits with an aggressive approach
toward Washington’s allies, he is trying to improve relation with North Korea
and Russia with a reconciling approach. Why?
It is very difficult to understand Donald Trump. I start with the possibility
that he has serious cognitive impairments which prevent his thinking clearly and
cogently. (He may, in short, be mentally ill.) He is also a pathological
narcissist who believes that only he can solve US foreign problems. His rush to
the summit meeting which Kim Jon Un is a consequence — an ill prepared summit
with very little substance but lots of positive headlines for the narcissist
Trump. With Putin — maybe the President of Russia does have incriminating videos
of Trump’s when he was in Russia for the beauty pageant he sponsored….It is also
the case that he admires authoritarian, tough guys over democratic leaders...
International community is experiencing a new area in which while the US is
retreating from the old orders and regimes, China is trying to impose its own
orders and regimes by reviewing ancient Silk Road project. To what extent the
developments in the Middle East especially in Syria are affected by
international systems structure which is changing?
Under Trump, the US is certainly retreating from globalization — its past
foreign policy priorities. In this sense he is cooperating with Russia and China
who seek the same goal. For the time being the Chinese Silk Road projects have
less to do with Syria than does the foreign policy of President Putin, whose
military presence is a powerful factor in all Syrian developments? Then there is
Iran, Israel, the US and Turkey — all part of the mix beneath President Assad.
We are very far from a stable outcome in Syria and should be prepared for more
combat, deaths, and chaos — poor Syria.
Some theoreticians including John Mearsheimer believe that one of the most
important elements of Trump’s foreign policy is to move toward offshore
balancing and reduction of troops and increasing of animosity with Iran. Do you
agree with this? Will the US decrease the number of its troops in Middle East?
If we accept that the mentioned elements are the base for Trump’s foreign
policy, how will Washington confront with Iran’s regional influence?
The senior people surrounding President Trump — particularly John Bolton and
James Mattis — are confirmed Iran haters. Trump himself hates Iran so the
combination of these people suggest very negative things ahead for the US - Iran
relationship. The only useful tools the US has for the moment is the imposition
of more punishing sanctions. This may be followed by efforts to stir domestic
Iranian unrest by focusing on Iran’s minorities — not likely to be a very
positive approach.
Reacting to President Trump’s remarks calling the EU a foe, Donald Tusk,
president of the European Council, asked Trump and Putin not to disturb world
order. Do you think that Trump and Putin are going to create a new world order?
If your answer is yes, how will the new polarization be in the new order?
This is inconceivable to me since Putin is hated by virtually everyone in the US
(with the apparent exception of President Trump).
Source: Tehran Times