As a result, the U.S. economy will be vulnerable in the long run. Moreover, it
seems that Trump wasn't able to achieve his economic goals in the international
system up to now. The existing evidences show this very well! Accordingly, one
of the most important issues is the economic relationship between China and the
United States of America.
U.S.-China relations continue to decline during the Trump presidency. Of course,
there were disagreements between Beijing and Washington over security and
cyber-security issues at the time of Barack Obama, but the emergence of trade
and economic disputes in their bilateral relations should be analyzed "beyond a
simple controversy." In other words, from the beginning 2017 and Trump's
presence at the top of the political and executive equations of the United
States, we have witnessed the emergence of constant crises and challenges in the
relations between Washington and Beijing. Many international affairs analysts
rightly believe that the conflict is not limited to economic and commercial
issues, and it will also affect the political, security and regional spheres.
• Measuring the consequences and effects of Trump's policies (in the long run)
on the international economy and the domestic economy of the United States has
become the concern of many experts in the field of international economics in
recent months. This issue has also shown itself in the trade war between the
United States and China. Although the outcome of the White House's performance
in the short term may be to increase the trade deficit of China (since with the
decrease of U.S. imports from China, Beijing's exports to the world markets will
be reduced). However, in the long run, the side effects of Trump's protectionism
can hit the domestic economy of the United States, and we'll see a constant
inflammation in the domestic and international economy of America. This will
become even more apparent when the Chinese use all their economic and commercial
power to confront with the United States! According to evidences in the field of
international trade and economics, China holds $1.17 trillion of U.S. government
debt, and China is clearly now the largest single holder of U.S. Treasury bonds.
Since the beginning of 2017, the time of Trump's presence in the White House,
many of the experts, including many Democrats, and even traditional Republicans,
warned the U.S. government against commercial confrontation with China. Many
American economists refer to China as "the U.S. banker." In such a situation,
the full-fledged economic war between the new U.S. administration and Beijing
could be interpreted as a commercial and economic suicide. Without a doubt,
Beijing and Washington will ultimately use methods in this economic conflict
which contradicts their red lines.
However, the main question is, what are the effects of adopting protectionist
policies by the United States government (especially against Beijing)? Have
American companies and industries been accompanying Trump in this regard? In
order to answer this question, we should take some important points into
consideration.
The first point is that two years has passed since Trump's presence at the White
House. However, evidences suggest that the U.S. President wasn't successful in
achieving his goals in this trade war with China. China’s monthly trade surplus
with the United States rose to a record high of U.S. $34.1 billion in September
on the back of an escalating trade war that shows little sign of cooling. The
figure, released by the customs administration, represented a 10 per cent
increase from the US$31.05 billion surplus booked for August, suggesting
Washington’s tariffs on imports of Chinese products have yet to have the desired
effect of narrowing the trade gap between the two countries.
These figures indicate that the Chinese can strongly resist Trump's economic
tricks. It also shows that Trump's efforts to persuade American investors to cut
off their ties with China were not effective.
"The big picture is the Chinese exports have so far held up well in the face of
escalating trade tensions and cooling global growth, most likely thanks to the
competitiveness boost provided by a weaker renminbi,” said Julian
Evans-Pritchard, senior China economist at Capital Economics.
The next point is about the multi-dimensional effects of Trump's policies in the
international system. As noted, the economic disputes between the United States
and China will be extended to other areas of relations between the two countries
and will even engage other international economic players, such as Russia, the
European Union and members of the BRICS.
The third point, which is perhaps the most important point, is the reaction of
American companies to the decisions made by the Trump government. Beijing has
announced that it will reciprocate Trump's protectionist policies and its
irresponsible intervention in international trade. This has led many American
companies to criticize Trump's anti-China policies in the field of international
economics, and to analyze it as a deterrent policy. More importantly, in
addition to economic tensions that are exponentially increasing, the United
States is targeting China in eastern Asia by taking specific positions towards
Taiwan and North Korea, an issue that Beijing will definitely react to it with a
determined response.
Source: TehranTimes