Partition Looms over Iraq's Future

Iraq is in deep turmoil. Grappling with a violent ISIS expansion bid and instability on the political front, the Arab country has enough problems to deal with. While the Iraqi army, backed by popular mobilization forces, is eliminating members of the terrorist group, plans to partition Iraq into three autonomous regions seem to be the larger threat at hand.

The idea of dividing Iraq is reminiscent of the New Middle East plan introduced in 2006 by Condoleezza Rice, then US secretary of state, who revealed the plans to draw a new map for the region. Therefore, partitioning Iraq could be no less of an attempt to redraw the borders of the Middle East.

Experts familiar with Iraq's developments say some foreign-backed groups within Iraq propose partitioning the country into Sunni, Kurdish and Shiite regions. In light of the current sectarian tensions, observers believe the Sunni region, namely the western Anbar province, would be the first to secede in the event of such partitioning.

Foreign Interests

The former US Army's chief of staff General Raymond Odierno hinted at the possibility of a partitioned Iraq. He warned last August that reconciliation between sects in Iraq is becoming increasingly difficult suggesting that federalism may return to the country.

"Iraq might not look like it did in the past," he was quoted as saying.

Dividing Iraq is certainly not in the country’s best interest but it does represent the interests of another force in the region: Washington’s closest ally.

Attempts to partition Iraq can be dated back to an article published by Israeli diplomat Odid Yinon in 1982. Similar to other Israeli plots, the bid seems to have the approval of the US administration. Also, it cannot be executed without the US government.

What is now known as the "Yinon plan” stated the following:

"Iraq, rich in oil on the one hand and internally torn on the other, is guaranteed as a candidate for Israel’s targets. Its dissolution is even more important for us than that of Syria.”

It went on to specify that the division must be based on ethnicity and religion, meaning, that the country should be split into Shiite, Sunni, and Kurdish fragments.

"In Iraq, a division into provinces along ethnic/religious lines as in Syria during Ottoman times is possible. So, three (or more) states will exist around the three major cities: Basra, Baghdad and Mosul, and Shi’ite areas in the south will separate from the Sunni and Kurdish north.”

In 2006, Senator John Biden reintroduced the idea of unifying Iraq by decentralizing it, comparing it to the Bosnia model.

"The first is to establish three largely autonomous regions with a viable central government in Baghdad. The Kurdish, Sunni and Shiite regions would each be responsible for their own domestic laws, administration and internal security,” Biden wrote in an op-ed published by the New York Times.

Repercussions

"It is easy to talk about separating people along sectarian and ethnic lines, but getting agreement on where those lines should be drawn is not only difficult, it is a reason to go to war,” said  Daniel Serwer, who served as executive director of the Baker-Hamilton Iraq Study Group and he couldn’t be more logical.

The main repercussion of partitioning would be another war, on an even larger scale because Iraqis wouldn’t be confronting a common enemy like ISIS. They would be facing each other.

Michael Knights of the Washington Institute said partitioning would ultimately lead to a fiasco.

"Making a new state is hard. Making three or five — a federal Iraq, a Kurdish autonomous region and maybe three Sunni regions — is a monstrous idea,” Knights explained.

For his part, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian has voiced the Islamic Republic’s stance saying division in Iraq is "in nobody’s interest.”

A divided Iraq can never be united. Militarizing a divided Iraq would only lead to further conflict and hostilities not to mention the degree to which terrorist groups can take advantage of this disintegration. In short, it is a recipe for disaster. However, it is up to Iraqis who are fighting for survival to keep a watchful eye over their sovereign country to prevent it from crumbling.(Alwaght)