IRGC official and senior political analyst Brigadier General Yadollah Javani , an advisor to Iran Leader’s representative at the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps in an article published by Basirat news website, has weighed in on the most recent developments in West Asia. The full text of the analytical piece follows:
At this juncture, West Asia could be regarded as the world’s most strategic region due to different reasons. Indubitably, the power controlling this region will be a major player in international equations in the third millennium. Bloody battles in the region over the past 15 years began with the deployment of US military troops and the occupation of Afghanistan and Iraq. The US tried to gain a foothold in the region as a precursor to securing domination over the world. The Islamic Revolution of Iran not only freed Iran, as the most strategic country in the region, from the clutches of the US and the West, but challenged the West’s centuries-old domination over the Middle East. Over the past 15 years, the West led by the US has tried its utmost to maintain its domination over the region. Among the measures adopted by the West to achieve this objective were the invasion of Afghanistan and Iraq, the Israeli attacks on Lebanon and Gaza and the outbreak of the 33-day, 22-day, 8-day and 51-day wars, waging wars inside the Muslim world and triggering religious tensions by creating and equipping Takfiri terrorist groups such as ISIS, and the Saudi aggression against Yemen.
In these bloody conflicts as well as war of words and strategic standoffs, two forces are facing off and each one wants to overcome the other. On the one side of this front stand the elements of a triangle comprising the US, Israel and the Al-Saud dynasty receiving strategic advice from the old colonialist power, the UK. However, on the other side of the front stand the regional nations which, inspired by Iran and modeling their struggles after the Islamic Revolution of Iran, are engaged in a serious campaign to regain their identities and self-esteem and to extricate themselves from the clutches of the West, diabolical powers and corrupt, autocratic and puppet governments. In fact, the major confrontation in the region is unfolding between tyrants and the oppressed. Of course, in this war of words and strategic standoff, the Russians have come to the conclusion that standing by the regional nations will serve their interests. Popular forces in the region are organized around the axis of resistance in which Iran plays the main role. Now the question regarding this conflict and strategic standoff is that "Who will be the ultimate winner?”
Will the US, Israel and Al Saud be the final winners of this battle? Or will the regional nations be the winners? Reviewing the trend of the developments in West Asia over the past four decades and figuring out the key and determining processes will give us a definitive answer. In these trends, the following points could determine the future for both fronts.
1. Over the past four decades and especially in the recent 15 years, the Americans have suffered strategic defeats in the region. As their power has declined, they have lost their ability as a player to achieve their objectives. Over the past years, they have sustained heavy costs and have inflicted damage, but have failed to gain what they wanted. The Americans have been seeking to form a new Middle East with features they desired. The full extent of the Americans’ failure to achieve this objective can be figured out by reviewing Trump’s words at different junctures throughout his election campaign where he said that Washington had spent $6 billion on Middle East wars without gaining any achievements. The United States is the real loser of the developments in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, the occupied territories and other developments.
2. Although the Zionist regime of Israel had enjoyed security in recent years thanks to the tensions triggered by terrorist groups in the region, Tel Aviv is now extremely worried about its future following the defeat of the ISIS and other terrorist groups in the region as well as an increase in the power of the resistance front due to its strategic triumphs. During Israel’s wars against Lebanon and Gaza, uncertainty grew over the Tel Aviv regime’s power.
Now, the bellicose Israeli regime does not dare launch military attacks on other countries as it used to. The victory of the resistance front over ISIS, the decline of the US power in the region and the Islamic Awakening current gaining strength have all put the Israeli regime in a strategic bind.
3. The defeats of the United States and Israeli regime in the Middle East region can be regarded as the failures of the Al Saud regime. The Saudi regime has lost its influence in Iraq and Syria altogether and is seriously concerned about its influence in Lebanon. The Saudis are trying to create a crisis in Lebanon by making Saad Hariri resign as Lebanese president, hoping to put an end to Iran and Hezbollah’s influence in Lebanon. Riyadh’s resorting to the Israeli regime to attack Hezbollah indicates Saudi rulers’ growing concern over losing their leverage in Lebanon. The Al Saud rulers have been overcome by the oppressed and poor Yemeni people, and are now on the defensive in a war that it started itself. Yemen’s possession of the technology to develop missiles capable of striking Riyadh has extremely horrified Saudi Arabia. A turf war among Saudi princes as well as the extensive and unusual arrests shows what the situation of the Al Saud dynasty is like. Currently, many Western analysts believe Saudi rulers’ behavior are similar to the behavior of the Shah [former Iranian dictator] before the downfall of the Pahlavi regime (the former Iranian regime led by the Shah).
Therefore, the tyrants’ front in the region is heading toward annihilation and will never be able to escape this fate.
Front of the Oppressed
The front of the oppressed also known as the front of nations led by the Islamic Republic of Iran has turned into a very strong front in the region. Now, Iran’s strategic influence in the region coupled with its scientific and military strength has tipped the balance of power in the region in favor of nations. Iran’s strategic influence in the region is the major concern for the West, especially the US. Western nations are worried because this influence is based on the support of people, people who have been organized in the regional countries and are developing their power in a targeted manner. The Lebanese Hezbollah, Yemen’s Ansarullah, Iraq’ Popular Mobilization Unites and popular forces in Syria are prime examples of organized people. Incontrovertibly, this people-based front will form the future of the region. After several years, order will return to the Middle East on the back of efforts by the regional nations. So, there is no doubt that the main winner of the developments in West Asia is the regional nations led by Iran.