Senior commentator Yadollah Javani has, in an article published on Sobeh Sadegh , weighed in on the tensions between Iran and the US. Excerpts from the article follow.
US President Donald told his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron in the northwestern French city of Caen on June 6, 2019 that Iran is a country that will reach a stalemate because sanctions against Tehran have been extraordinary and effective.
However, Trump added, the US can change this situation. Trump said he knew that Iran wanted to hold talks with the U-S, adding Washington was ready for negotiations with Tehran.
Now, a fundamental question has arisen in political circles around the world, and that is, which one has reached a dead end: Iran or the US? The answer to this strategic question will depict the future and its features. The reality is that there is a smart and multifaceted war going on between Iran and the United States in all domains, except a direct military conflict. The Americans have come to the scene with all their power, and their only aim is to force Iran into submission through negotiations. This arena of conflict and confrontation, the main war is one of willpowers.
Business-like Trump had no doubt that after taking the helm at the White House, he would be able to draw on his business skill to shatter forty years of resistance by the Iranian nation and force the Islamic Republic of Iran to submit to the United States. However, two years into Trump’s presidency, he is now seeing other realities unfolding before him and his team. A glance at a few acts of plays by Trump and his team with key men like John Bolton and Mike Pompeo, more light is shed on the trends which have taken shape in the past and now, making it almost possible to predict the future.
The first act of this play goes back to the time when Trump entered the domain of politics and the election campaign. At that time, Trump adopted very tough stances against the Islamic Republic of Iran, accusing the then US administration of being naïve in dealing with Iran. Trump announced if he was elected to the White House, he would tear up the Iran nuclear deal known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and would seriously confront Iran.
After setting foot in the White House, and following the psychological warfare he had launched during the first act of his play, Trump called for re-negotiation with Iran and revising the JCPOA or formulating new deals. Trump believed that by kicking up a fuss, Iranian officials would bow to his excessive demands fearing the termination of the JCPOA and would agree to some revisions to the JCPOA. Nevertheless, unlike what Trump thought and contrary to his assessment, which had its roots in his business skill in economy and his trade deals, Iran ruled out the possibility of any talks and revision of the JCPOA.
Trump, who had failed in the previous act, staged the third act of his play by announcing the United States’ withdrawal from the JCPOA and imposing the most severe sanctions on the Islamic Republic of Iran.
By making miscalculations about the domestic situation in Iran, and by drawing on the news reports and intelligence provided by the terrorist group, the Mujahadeen-e-Khalq Organization, monarchists and some other West-leaning local elements, the Americans’ believed that Iran was teetering on the edge of a precipice and was on the verge of collapse. Accordingly, they set more conditions for a likely dialogue with Iran. The scenario of “Hot Summer” and of the Islamic Republic failing to reach its 40th anniversary was blown all out of proportion in media outlets run by hegemonic powers and anti-revolutionary elements, so much so that the Americans, including individuals such US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, became more delusional than ever.
Pompeo set 12 conditions for negotiations with Iran. He was of the conviction that the US was at the apex of its power and Iran was at the nadir of weakness, and hence, Tehran would have no other option but to accept those conditions. The twelve conditions set by Pompeo had been designed in such a way that accepting them would have meant Iran’s complete submission to the US. The scenario looked as if Iran had been defeated in a military war with the US and had had no other choice but to give in to the demands of the winner!
In order to win the battle of willpowers, Trump, on the one hand, spoke of bringing Iran’s oil exports to zero along with intensifying the sanctions, and, on the other, put Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) on the list of terrorist groups, suggesting he was using his willpower to mobilize all resources to counter the Islamic Republic of Iran. In order to realize and justify its threats against Iran, Trump deployed the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier to the Persian Gulf. Nevertheless, despite all the ballyhoo and propaganda campaigns by the US and its allies as well as the anti-revolutionary current, last winter was marked by the most glorious scenes of people’s participation in rallies marking the 40th anniversary of the victory of the Islamic Revolution. People also turned out en masse in International Quds Day demonstrations, showing their solidarity against the enemy.
Several events revealed that calculations and assessments of Trump and his team were wrong, namely muscle-flexing by the Palestinian resistance front in the recent war in Gaza by firing more than 800 missiles and rockets over 70 percent of which penetrated the so-called Iron Dome, the willpower of the Syrian government, army and popular resistance in liberating Idlib as the last stronghold of US-backed terrorists, The Iraqis’ insistence on continuing their cooperation with Iran and ignoring sanctions, the Yemenis’ display of power in the battlefield by using state-of-the-art drones, and Iran’s success in containing pressures and circumventing sanctions and turning sanctions into opportunities in order to make the nation’s economy less dependent on foreign countries, namely oil sales, and Tehran’s determination to seriously counter any military move by Washington.
It was under such circumstances when Pompeo retreated from his 12 conditions and spoke of unconditional talks with Iran. Moreover, Trump has realized that the domain of politics is a far cry from that of economy. He has understood that the Iranian nation’s resistance is inexhaustible. Such a nation will never reach a deadlock.